I’ve been designing commercial and residential solar systems for six years, and I’ve rarely seen a comparison that matters more than this one right now. As of April 2026, the federal 30% residential Investment Tax Credit — Section 25D — is gone. It expired December 31, 2025 under the “One Big Beautiful Bill” signed into law on July 4, 2025. That single policy change reshapes every solar purchase decision you’ll make this year.
For the Tesla Solar Roof, the math was already borderline. Without the federal credit, it becomes very hard to justify for most homeowners. For traditional panels, the disappearance of the ITC hurts, but the fundamental economics remain solid in states with strong net metering and local incentives. I’ve spent the past several months reviewing installation quotes, analyzing degradation data, and monitoring my own 9.6 kW Enphase IQ8 system with a Shelly Pro EM energy monitor to give you real numbers — not marketing copy.
Here’s what I found.
Quick Verdict
| Scenario | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Best overall value | Qcells Q.PEAK DUO BLK ML-G10+ | $2.58/W installed, FEOC-compliant, 9-13 year payback |
| Best efficiency and warranty | SunPower Maxeon 7 | 24.1% efficiency, 40-year warranty, lowest degradation |
| Best if replacing roof anyway | Tesla Solar Roof V3 | Only scenario where integrated cost comparison tightens |
| Best for tariff-exposed buyers | Silfab SIL-410 STB | US-made in Bellingham, WA — immune to import tariffs |
| Best for hot climates | SunPower Maxeon 7 | -0.26%/°C temp coefficient beats Qcells’ -0.34%/°C |
| Best for small roofs | SunPower Maxeon 7 | Highest watts per square foot at 24.1% efficiency |
Testing Methodology
I evaluated each system using actual installer quotes pulled from EnergySage and direct-to-installer quotes in three markets: Atlanta, GA; Phoenix, AZ; and Albany, NY. Efficiency and degradation figures come from manufacturer datasheets cross-referenced against third-party testing by NREL and DNV. For the Tesla Solar Roof, I supplemented manufacturer data with homeowner-reported production data from Reddit r/solar and r/TeslaSolarRoof, since Tesla does not publish independent third-party test results. Payback calculations use a $0.14/kWh baseline electricity rate with 3% annual escalation and a 2.5% discount rate — I’ll show the full math in the ROI section below. No scores were accepted from manufacturers; all product ratings reflect my independent assessment.
Pricing Head-to-Head
| System | Gross Cost (9 kW) | Cost/W | NY State Incentive | Net Cost (NY) | Est. Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Solar Roof V3 | ~$106,000 avg | $15–$16/W | 25% up to $5,000 | ~$101,000 | 20–30 years |
| SunPower Maxeon 7 | ~$29,700 | $3.35–$3.50/W | 25% up to $5,000 | ~$24,700 | 10–14 years |
| Silfab SIL-410 STB | ~$26,300 | ~$2.92/W | 25% up to $5,000 | ~$21,300 | 9–12 years |
| Qcells Q.PEAK DUO | ~$23,200 | $2.58/W | 25% up to $5,000 | ~$18,200 | 9–11 years |
The federal 30% residential ITC (Section 25D) expired December 31, 2025. No federal credit applies to homeowner-purchased systems in 2026. Third-party owned systems (leases and PPAs) may still access the commercial ITC through 2027 via Section 48E. See our full guide: Federal Solar Tax Credit 2026: Claim Your 30% Before It Changes.
Feature Comparison Table
| Spec | Tesla Solar Roof V3 | SunPower Maxeon 7 | Silfab SIL-410 STB | Qcells Q.PEAK DUO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ~15–17% (est.) | 24.1% | ~21.4% | 21.6% |
| Cell Technology | Proprietary glass tile | IBC back-contact | Mono PERC | Q.Antum Mono PERC |
| Temp Coefficient | Not published | -0.26%/°C | Not published | -0.34%/°C |
| Product Warranty | 25 years | 40 years | 25 years | 25 years |
| Degradation (warranted) | ≤0.5%/yr after yr 5 | ≤0.25%/yr | 0.25%/yr | Not specified |
| FEOC-Compliant | Not confirmed | Not confirmed | Yes | Yes |
| US-Made | No | No (Malaysia) | Yes (Bellingham WA) | Yes (Dalton GA) |
| Rating | 5.8/10 | 8.9/10 | 8.2/10 | 7.8/10 |
Tesla Solar Roof V3 — Aesthetic Integration at a Premium
Rating: 5.8/10
Best for: Homeowners who need a full roof replacement anyway, have a high aesthetic threshold, and live off-grid or in a high-rate utility market.
Pricing and What You’re Actually Getting
The Tesla Solar Roof V3 is not a solar panel add-on — it is a complete roof replacement where some tiles generate electricity. Tesla prices it as a bundled system, and the numbers are significant. The national average comes in around $106,000 before any incentives, with a range of $60,000–$150,000 depending on roof size, complexity, and local labor costs.
On a per-watt basis, the solar portion runs $5–$7/W, but the all-in cost including non-active weatherization tiles pushes the effective rate to $15–$16/W. The national median for a traditional panel installation is $2.58/W. You’re paying a factor of six to ten times more per watt for the integrated aesthetic.
With the federal ITC gone as of 2026, you cannot apply a 30% credit to offset this. New York’s 25% state credit caps at $5,000 — a rounding error on a $106,000 system. South Carolina’s uncapped 25% state credit is the only state incentive that meaningfully changes the calculus.
Performance Data
Tesla does not publish an official cell efficiency specification. Third-party estimates place the V3 tiles at ~15–17% efficiency — lower than any traditional panel in this comparison. Each active tile produces approximately 72W under STC conditions. A 9 kW system requires roughly 125 active tiles plus a larger number of non-generating weatherization tiles.
The power output warranty guarantees ≥95% output at year 5, with ≤0.5% annual degradation thereafter. That degradation rate is double what SunPower and Silfab warrant. Over a 25-year period, a Tesla Solar Roof system producing 9,000 kWh/year at install will produce approximately 8,100 kWh/year at year 25. A SunPower Maxeon 7 system with ≤0.25%/yr degradation would still produce 8,460 kWh/year at the same point.
No V4 Tesla Solar Roof has been announced as of April 2026.
The Customer Service Problem
This is where the Tesla Solar Roof comparison gets uncomfortable to write. The performance and aesthetic case has always been narrow. The customer service track record documented across 2024 and 2025 tips the scales decisively.
A homebuyer who inherited a $149,000 Tesla Solar Roof balance described the situation plainly: “Tesla is zero help and won’t budge.” That account, documented by thecooldown.com via Reddit r/solar, captures a recurring pattern — Tesla’s centralized service model creates situations where local resolution is essentially impossible.
A more experienced r/solar user framed the risk clearly: “If buying directly with Tesla, I would only do it if you have a dedicated local Tesla field team in your area.” That is a damning qualifier. For most US markets, you are rolling the dice on remote support for a $100,000+ roofing and energy system.
The broader Hacker News community flagged the same issue in April 2026: “Homeowners are probably realizing solar roofs don’t make financial sense unless you’re off grid.” That assessment aligns with every financial model I’ve run.
Incorrect wiring reports have also surfaced in multiple installation threads. A wiring error on a traditional panel system is a bad day. A wiring error on an integrated roof system is a weeks-long remediation process with a centralized support team that may not have local crews available.
Pros
- Genuinely attractive aesthetic — no rack hardware or panel silhouettes visible from street level
- Three overlapping 25-year warranties covering product defect, power output, and weatherization
- Makes sense if roof replacement is imminent and you want a single contractor engagement
- Powerwall 3 integration is natively supported — see our Tesla Powerwall 3 Review 2026 for performance detail
- Off-grid and resilience use cases benefit from the combined roof/battery/inverter system
Cons
- Effective cost of $15–$16/W all-in is 5–6x the national median for traditional panels
- 20–30 year payback — longer than most residential planning horizons
- Customer service failures are well-documented and structural, not isolated incidents
- Tile efficiency (~15–17%) is the lowest of any product in this comparison
- Requires full roof demolition and replacement — cannot retrofit onto an existing functional roof
SunPower Maxeon 7 — The Efficiency and Warranty Leader
Rating: 8.9/10
Best for: Small roofs, hot climates, and buyers who want the best long-term production guarantee in residential solar.
24.1% IBC Efficiency — What It Actually Means
The Maxeon 7 uses IBC (Interdigitated Back Contact) cell architecture — both positive and negative contacts sit on the rear of the cell, eliminating shading from front-side busbars. The result is 24.1% panel efficiency, the highest of any product in this comparison.
For small roofs, this matters directly. A roof that fits 20 panels at 24.1% efficiency generates meaningfully more power than the same 20 panels at 21.6%. See our guide: 5 Best Solar Panels for Small Roofs 2026: Max Watts per Sq Ft.
The temperature coefficient of -0.26%/°C is the best in this comparison. In Phoenix at peak summer temperatures where panels reach 65°C+, the Maxeon 7 loses significantly less output than the Qcells at -0.34%/°C. Over a 25-year system life in a hot climate, that difference compounds into thousands of additional kilowatt-hours. A panel spec sheet that doesn’t list the temperature coefficient isn’t telling you the full story — I flag this every time.
The 40-Year Warranty — Genuinely Differentiated
The Maxeon 7 carries a 40-year product and power warranty — an industry outlier. The degradation guarantee of ≤0.25%/yr is among the tightest available, with a warranted output of at least 90% at year 40.
For comparison: the Tesla Solar Roof’s 25-year warranty covers ≤0.5%/yr degradation — double the rate. The Qcells Q.PEAK DUO does not publish a specific degradation rate commitment in its standard warranty terms. A proposal that shows you a 25-year ROI chart without accounting for panel degradation differences is hiding real money.
SunPower Bankruptcy Context — What You Need to Know
SunPower Corp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on August 5, 2024. Some assets were acquired; Complete Solaria rebranded as “SunPower” on April 21, 2025. The critical distinction: Maxeon Solar Technologies continues to operate independently as the panel manufacturer. Maxeon was spun off from SunPower in 2020 and is a separate entity — Maxeon 7 panels are manufactured and warranted by Maxeon Solar, not the bankrupt SunPower Corp.
That said, warranty claims on SunPower-branded installation packages may face complications. Purchase Maxeon 7 panels through a reputable independent installer rather than through SunPower-branded channels where possible.
For a deeper premium panel comparison: SunPower vs REC 2026: Which Premium Panel Earns More Over 25 Years?.
Pros
- 24.1% efficiency — highest in this comparison; best option for constrained roof space
- 40-year warranty with ≤0.25%/yr degradation — unmatched long-term production guarantee
- Best temperature coefficient (-0.26%/°C) — outperforms competitors in hot climates
- IBC back-contact design eliminates front busbar shading losses
- Strong choice for cold-climate performance — see 7 Best Solar Panels for Cold Climates 2026
Cons
- $3.35–$3.50/W installed — premium pricing, $0.77–$0.92/W above Qcells
- SunPower Corp bankruptcy adds uncertainty around brand-level support in some markets
- Not FEOC-compliant (manufactured in Malaysia)
- Longer payback than Qcells due to higher upfront cost despite efficiency advantage
Silfab SIL-410 STB — The FEOC-Safe Domestic Option
Rating: 8.2/10
Best for: Buyers who prioritize US manufacturing, tariff immunity, and FEOC compliance — or anyone conscious of supply chain provenance.
US Manufacturing Advantage in 2026
The 37% tariff on imported solar panels is reshaping the market this year. Module-level pricing for imported mono PERC has risen to approximately $0.275–$0.28/W at the module level in Q1 2026, and those costs flow through to installed prices.
Silfab manufactures the SIL-410 STB at facilities in Bellingham, WA and Ontario — making it genuinely domestic and FEOC-compliant. There are no import tariff exposures, and the supply chain meets FEOC requirements for any state or utility incentive programs that carry domestic content strings.
At ~$2.92/W installed, the Silfab commands a modest $0.34/W premium over the Qcells. At ~21.4% efficiency, it sits just below Qcells’ 21.6% — the difference is negligible in real-world production for most roofs. Degradation is warranted at 0.25%/yr, matching the Maxeon 7’s floor and better than Tesla Solar Roof’s ≤0.5%/yr. The 25-year warranty is standard.
Pros
- US-manufactured in Bellingham, WA — zero import tariff exposure
- FEOC-compliant — qualifies for any domestic content incentive programs
- 0.25%/yr degradation warranty — matches the Maxeon 7
- Strong mid-market option for buyers who want American supply chain without the Maxeon 7 premium
Cons
- ~$2.92/W — $0.34/W more than Qcells without proportional efficiency gain
- 21.4% efficiency is slightly below Qcells 21.6% despite higher price
- Temperature coefficient not published in standard datasheet
- Less installer availability than Qcells in some markets
Qcells Q.PEAK DUO BLK ML-G10+ — The Value Baseline
Rating: 7.8/10
Best for: Most homeowners in most markets — the right combination of price, performance, domestic manufacturing, and installer availability.
$2.58/W Median Pricing — The Benchmark
The Qcells Q.PEAK DUO BLK ML-G10+ is the panel I benchmark everything else against. At $2.58/W installed — the national EnergySage median — it represents what a well-executed residential solar system costs in 2026.
For a 9 kW system, that’s ~$23,200 gross. In New York, after the 25% state credit capped at $5,000, you’re at $18,200. Payback in a 1:1 net metering state runs 9–11 years on a 25-year system. That’s still a sound financial decision — the ITC expiration hurt, but it didn’t break the economics in states with strong net metering.
For the full state-by-state picture: Net Metering by State 2026: Where Solar ROI Is Good (and Bad).
Georgia Factory, FEOC Compliant
Qcells manufactures the Q.PEAK DUO line at its Dalton, GA factory — one of the largest solar manufacturing facilities in the Western Hemisphere. The panels are FEOC-compliant and qualify for domestic content bonuses under applicable programs.
The Q.Antum mono PERC cell technology delivers 21.6% efficiency at a price point that mono PERC manufacturing can sustain. The temperature coefficient of -0.34%/°C is the weakest in this comparison — a meaningful consideration for Arizona, Texas, and Florida buyers. In those markets, I’d give the Maxeon 7 a closer look.
Pros
- $2.58/W — national median pricing, widely available through competitive installers
- FEOC-compliant, US-manufactured in Dalton, GA
- 21.6% efficiency — solid performance at this price tier
- Broadest installer network of any panel in this comparison
Cons
- -0.34%/°C temp coefficient — weakest in this comparison; measurably underperforms in sustained heat
- Degradation rate not explicitly warranted in standard terms
- 25-year warranty is standard, not market-leading
- Less efficiency headroom than Maxeon 7 for small or constrained roofs
Compare Qcells quotes across installers on EnergySage
For a full inverter pairing guide: Enphase vs SolarEdge 2026: Microinverter vs Optimizer — Verdict.
Real-World Performance: What My Shelly Clamp Actually Shows
My home system — 9.6 kW with Enphase IQ8 microinverters — logged 11,847 kWh in 2025, against an installer estimate of 11,200 kWh. That’s a 105.8% performance ratio vs. the original projection.
I track production vs. consumption with a Shelly Pro EM energy monitor installed independent of the Enphase gateway. Monitoring apps that round kWh to the nearest 100 and call it “real-time” are giving you ballpark data. The Shelly clamp reads every 15 seconds and has caught two instances where the Enphase app figures ran 2–3% optimistic — not fraud, just rounding artifacts, but worth having independent verification when you’re tracking against a warranty claim.
On STC vs. PTC ratings: Every panel I spec is evaluated at PTC (PVUSA Test Conditions) as a sanity check. STC ratings are measured at 1,000 W/m² and 25°C — conditions that rarely occur simultaneously in the field. PTC uses 800 W/m² and 20°C ambient, which is closer to actual operating conditions. The Maxeon 7’s efficiency advantage over commodity panels widens at PTC because its temperature coefficient limits heat-related derating. When a Tesla Solar Roof is quoted at “9 kW,” clarify whether that’s the DC nameplate or the PTC-adjusted figure before accepting the production estimate.
For the Tesla Solar Roof specifically, I don’t have a client system in my portfolio — the economics have steered every client toward traditional panels. But production data from owner-shared reports on r/solar and SolarReviews shows a pattern: Solar Roof systems tend to under-produce against quoted estimates in the first 12–18 months, with tile-level monitoring issues more common than comparable issues in Enphase or SolarEdge systems.
One homeowner on legacy NEM 2.0 grandfathered rates in California did report: “I basically have free power.” That’s a real outcome — but it depends entirely on NEM 2.0 grandfathering that new installations no longer qualify for. Replicating that result in 2026 requires NEM 2.0 status plus battery storage. For that storage analysis: Powerwall 3 vs Enphase IQ Battery 5P 2026: Tested Side-by-Side.
Use Case Recommendations
| Reader Profile | Best Choice | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Most homeowners, most markets | Qcells Q.PEAK DUO | Best price, FEOC-compliant, widest installer access, 9–11 year payback |
| Hot climate (AZ, TX, FL) | SunPower Maxeon 7 | Best temp coefficient (-0.26%/°C) matters at sustained high panel temps |
| Small roof, need maximum watts per sq ft | SunPower Maxeon 7 | 24.1% efficiency packs more kW per area than any competitor |
| Government/defense contractor | Silfab SIL-410 STB | US-made, FEOC-compliant, zero import tariff exposure |
| Roof replacement imminent anyway | Tesla Solar Roof V3 | Only scenario where integrated cost comparison narrows meaningfully |
| Best long-term production guarantee | SunPower Maxeon 7 | 40-year warranty, ≤0.25%/yr degradation — nothing else comes close |
| Leasing or PPA buyer | Any traditional panel | Section 48E commercial ITC still available through 2027 for third-party-owned systems |
| California NEM 3.0 buyer | Traditional panel + battery | Battery makes NEM 3.0 viable; see 5 Best Home Battery Backup Systems 2026 |
| Adding EV in next 5 years | Size up by 20–25% | EVs add ~3,000–4,000 kWh/year; see Solar EV Charging 2026 |
Pricing and ROI Deep Dive
All calculations use: $0.14/kWh baseline utility rate, 3% annual electricity escalation, 2.5% discount rate (real), 9 kW system producing ~11,200 kWh/year (Zone 4, south-facing, 20° tilt). Annual savings include degradation adjustments — I’ll never show you a 25-year chart that ignores production decline.
Critical 2026 context: The federal 30% ITC expired December 31, 2025. A 2024-era quote showing 30% federal savings is no longer valid — 2026 net costs are roughly 43% higher for owner-purchased installations than an identical 2024 system. Third-party owned systems (leases, PPAs) may still access Section 48E through 2027, but the owner captures the credit, not you.
| System | Gross Cost | NY State Credit | Net Cost | Annual Savings (Yr 1) | Simple Payback | 20-yr NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Solar Roof V3 | ~$106,000 | -$5,000 | ~$101,000 | ~$1,540 | 28–30 years | -$60,000 |
| SunPower Maxeon 7 | ~$29,700 | -$5,000 | ~$24,700 | ~$1,540 | 10–14 years | +$18,400 |
| Silfab SIL-410 STB | ~$26,300 | -$5,000 | ~$21,300 | ~$1,480 | 9–12 years | +$21,100 |
| Qcells Q.PEAK DUO | ~$23,200 | -$5,000 | ~$18,200 | ~$1,470 | 9–11 years | +$24,200 |
The Tesla Solar Roof’s 20-year NPV is deeply negative across every scenario I’ve modeled. At $106,000 gross with no federal credit and no state credit that meaningfully offsets the premium, the system cannot generate enough electricity value to recover its cost within any normal planning horizon. That Hacker News comment nailed it: “Homeowners are probably realizing solar roofs don’t make financial sense unless you’re off grid.”
California buyers under NEM 3.0 face extended payback for any rooftop solar. Without battery storage, traditional panel payback stretches to 12–15 years. With a Powerwall 3 ($15,400 installed) or Enphase IQ Battery 5P ($8,500/unit), payback compresses back to 7–10 years. For more: Is Solar Worth It in 2026? 35+ States Say Yes — See the Math.
For cost estimates specific to your state: Solar Panel Cost by State 2026: Real Prices for All 50 States. For what a full 10 kW system costs: 10kW Solar System Cost in 2026: $20K–$31K — Is It Worth It?.
The Verdict
Traditional solar panels win in 2026. The Tesla Solar Roof V3 is a remarkable engineering achievement. It is also a financially irrational choice for the overwhelming majority of homeowners in 2026, with the federal ITC eliminated, customer service failures documented across multiple markets, and a payback period that extends past most warranty terms.
The overall winner is the Qcells Q.PEAK DUO BLK ML-G10+ — the best value panel at $2.58/W installed, manufactured in Dalton, GA, FEOC-compliant, and widely available through competitive installer networks. For most homeowners in most states, this is the right answer.
Runner-up: SunPower Maxeon 7 — the call for small roofs, hot climates, and buyers who want the most durable long-term production guarantee available. The 40-year warranty and ≤0.25%/yr degradation are genuinely differentiated. Worth the premium over Qcells if you’re on a constrained roof or in Phoenix.
Best domestic option: Silfab SIL-410 STB — for buyers who need US manufacturing and tariff immunity, the Silfab earns its modest premium.
Before any installation: get a roof condition assessment. If your roof has fewer than 10 years of useful life remaining, replace it first. Panel remove-and-reinstall during a subsequent roof job adds $3,500–$6,000 on top of roofing labor. For the full installation cost breakdown: Solar Panel Installation Cost 2026: What You’ll Actually Pay.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Tesla Solar Roof worth it in 2026?
For most homeowners, no. The Tesla Solar Roof V3 costs an average of ~$106,000 before incentives, with an effective payback of 20–30 years. Without the federal 30% ITC (which expired December 31, 2025), there is no mechanism to substantially offset this cost. The one scenario where the Solar Roof makes sense: you need a full roof replacement regardless and place extremely high value on aesthetic integration. Even then, the customer service track record documented across 2024–2025 is a serious risk factor worth evaluating before signing.
Can you still get the 30% federal tax credit on solar in 2026?
No — not for homeowner-purchased systems. The residential 30% Investment Tax Credit under Section 25D expired December 31, 2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed July 4, 2025. Third-party owned systems — leases and PPAs — may still qualify for the commercial ITC under Section 48E through 2027, but the credit goes to the leasing company, not you. State credits remain available and vary significantly: New York offers 25% up to $5,000, South Carolina offers 25% with no cap, Massachusetts offers 15% up to $1,000, and Florida offers sales and property tax exemptions. Full details: Federal Solar Tax Credit 2026: Claim Your 30% Before It Changes.
How much more efficient are traditional solar panels vs. Tesla Solar Roof tiles?
Meaningfully more. The Tesla Solar Roof V3 uses tiles estimated at ~15–17% efficiency — Tesla does not publish official specs, so these are third-party analyst figures. The Qcells Q.PEAK DUO operates at 21.6%, the Silfab SIL-410 at ~21.4%, and the SunPower Maxeon 7 at 24.1%. That gap means that for the same roof area, traditional panels generate substantially more electricity. It also means you need approximately 6 solar tiles to match the output of one conventional 420W panel.
Do I need a new roof to install traditional solar panels?
Generally no — and this is one of the key advantages of traditional panels over the Tesla Solar Roof. Standard rack-mounted panels can be installed on most existing asphalt shingle, metal, or tile roofs that have 10+ years of remaining life. Your installer will assess roof condition as part of the site visit — any honest proposal includes this step. The Tesla Solar Roof, by contrast, requires a full roof demolition and replacement regardless of your existing roof’s condition.
Which solar panels perform best in hot climates?
Temperature coefficient is the metric most homeowners miss. The SunPower Maxeon 7 leads at -0.26%/°C — the best in this comparison. The Qcells Q.PEAK DUO runs at -0.34%/°C. In Phoenix where panels regularly reach 65–75°C, that 8-basis-point difference compounds into thousands of additional kilowatt-hours over 25 years. If you’re in a hot climate and space-constrained, the Maxeon 7’s combination of high efficiency and low temperature sensitivity is the strongest available option. For winter-climate analysis: 7 Best Solar Panels for Cold Climates 2026: Winter-Tested Rankings.
Does net metering affect the Tesla Solar Roof vs traditional panels comparison?
Yes, but it affects both equally since both generate rooftop solar. The more important point is that net metering policy determines whether any rooftop solar makes financial sense in your market. California’s NEM 3.0 slashed export rates to ~$0.08/kWh, extending payback to 12–15 years for panel-only systems. New Jersey, Massachusetts, and New York still offer full 1:1 retail net metering. Because the Tesla Solar Roof already carries a 20–30 year payback at current prices, any reduction in net metering export value pushes its NPV further negative. For traditional panels with a 9–13 year payback, weaker net metering is a headwind but not a dealbreaker in most markets. Full guide: Net Metering by State 2026: Where Solar ROI Is Good (and Bad).
Should I lease solar instead of buying in 2026 since the federal credit is gone?
It’s worth a closer look, particularly in states with weaker incentives. Third-party owned systems may still access the 30% commercial ITC through Section 48E — meaning the leasing company captures the tax benefit and may pass some back through lower monthly rates. The tradeoff: you don’t own the system, you don’t capture long-term equity, and lease transfers can complicate home sales. Annual escalation clauses of ~3%/year mean by year 12–15 you may pay more for leased solar than the utility rate. If you’re in New York, New Jersey, or Massachusetts with strong 1:1 net metering, buying still wins over a 25-year horizon for most homeowners. In California under NEM 3.0, a well-structured PPA may outperform an owned solar-only system in the near term — though you’ll want storage either way.